2021 · Week 11

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Tim Boyle

10·13

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CLE -13

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.061EPA / play+0.014
  • 42.1%Success rate43.7%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback+0.013
  • -0.123EPA / rush+0.015
  • 9.0%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -0.05CPOE-2.26
  • 34.7%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.73Points / drive1.81
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 44.7 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4CLE @ DET10–34DET
2017 · W10CLE @ DET24–38DET
2013 · W6DET @ CLE31–17DET
2009 · W11CLE @ DET37–38DET
2005 · W7DET @ CLE13–10DET
2001 · W2DET @ CLE14–24CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00628Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:55618Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:1910Turnover0–0
DETQ1 8:08637Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 4:46884Touchdown0–7
DETQ2 14:5233Punt0–7
CLEQ2 13:48923Missed field goal0–7
DETQ2 10:0934Punt0–7
CLEQ2 8:041568Touchdown0–13
DETQ2 1:10818End of half0–13
DETQ3 15:00415Punt0–13
CLEQ3 12:30731Punt0–13
DETQ3 8:15210Turnover0–13
CLEQ3 7:24535Punt0–13
DETQ3 4:19478Touchdown7–13
CLEQ3 1:5530Punt7–13
DETQ3 1:15528Punt7–13
CLEQ4 12:54517Turnover7–13
DETQ4 11:0139Field goal10–13
CLEQ4 9:07621Punt10–13
DETQ4 5:16425Punt10–13
CLEQ4 2:29744End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Boyle15/237702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift141369.71
Jamaal Williams7111.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson68510
Amon-Ra St. Brown44180
Brock Wright11120
Kalif Raymond0100
Josh Reynolds0300
D'Andre Swift3400
Godwin Igwebuike11-40

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield15/2917612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb221305.90
D'Ernest Johnson5265.20
Jarvis Landry11616.01
Baker Mayfield492.30
Demetric Felton320.70
David Njoku111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper47530
Ja'Marcus Bradley22460
Jarvis Landry48260
David Njoku24200
Rashard Higgins15170
Nick Chubb22141

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.37
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.57