Closing spread
CLE -13
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play+0.014
- 42.1%Success rate43.7%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.123EPA / rush+0.015
- 9.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- -0.05CPOE-2.26
- 34.7%Third-down rate39.1%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.73Points / drive1.81
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. CLE are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Boyle | 15/23 | 77 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 136 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 15/29 | 176 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 22 | 130 | 5.9 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Demetric Felton | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Ja'Marcus Bradley | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.37
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.57