Closing spread
KC -1.5
Total
39
Model margin
+4.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.048EPA / play+0.014
- 40.3%Success rate43.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.113EPA / rush+0.032
- 9.8%Explosive rate10.8%
- 35.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.21Points / drive1.54
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.053EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 20/34 | 208 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 7 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 5 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 17/34 | 184 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thomas | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 2 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.96