2025 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

22·9

Giants

New York

QB Russell Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

KC -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapGiants
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.043
  • 44.5%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.040
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.09CPOE-1.30
  • 39.4%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.06
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W8NYG @ KC17–20KC
2017 · W11KC @ NYG9–12NYG
2013 · W4NYG @ KC7–31KC
2009 · W4NYG @ KC27–16NYG
2005 · W15KC @ NYG17–27NYG
2001 · W2NYG @ KC13–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001041Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 9:061246Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 3:45517Punt3–0
KCQ1 0:111051Field goal6–0
NYGQ2 9:4833Turnover6–0
KCQ2 8:43725Missed field goal6–0
NYGQ2 5:241050Touchdown6–6
KCQ2 1:443-9Punt6–6
NYGQ2 1:1143Turnover6–6
KCQ2 0:49812Field goal9–6
KCQ3 15:001174Touchdown16–6
NYGQ3 8:22520Punt16–6
KCQ3 4:38627Punt16–6
NYGQ3 1:091268Field goal16–9
KCQ4 10:12977Touchdown22–9
NYGQ4 6:031368Turnover on downs22–9
KCQ4 2:3136Punt22–9
NYGQ4 2:04411Turnover on downs22–9
KCQ4 1:4200End of half22–9

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes22/3722410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco10454.50
Kareem Hunt10343.41
Brashard Smith2136.50
Nikko Remigio11111.00
Patrick Mahomes520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyquan Thornton59711
JuJu Smith-Schuster44550
Marquise Brown46420
Travis Kelce47260
Noah Gray36170
Kareem Hunt11100
Isiah Pacheco1130
Brashard Smith0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/3216002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo10606.01
Tyrone Tracy Jr.7294.10
Russell Wilson5275.40
Devin Singletary4112.80
Jaxson Dart133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cam Skattebo68610
Darius Slayton44300
Wan'Dale Robinson14260
Malik Nabers27130
Theo Johnson12100
Chris Manhertz1170
Tyrone Tracy Jr.2370
Daniel Bellinger1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.78
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.53