Closing spread
KC -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.043
- 44.5%Success rate42.9%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.040
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.09CPOE-1.30
- 39.4%Third-down rate39.6%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.23Points / drive2.06
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 22/37 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 10 | 34 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Brashard Smith | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Nikko Remigio | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyquan Thornton | 5 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/32 | 160 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Malik Nabers | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.39
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53