Closing spread
KC -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play-0.106
- 44.2%Success rate41.1%
- +0.170EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.119
- 9.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.58CPOE-3.91
- 39.2%Third-down rate32.5%
- 53.9%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 2.21Points / drive1.19
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 27/40 | 230 | 0 | 2 |
| Travis Kelce | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 14 | 109 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ross Travis | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/35 | 205 | 0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 20 | 74 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Lewis | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Tavarres King | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Travis Rudolph | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.30