2017 · Week 11

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

9·12

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 23mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapGiants
  • +0.082EPA / play-0.106
  • 44.2%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.119
  • 9.8%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +4.58CPOE-3.91
  • 39.2%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 53.9%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 2.21Points / drive1.19
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3KC @ NYG22–9KC
2021 · W8NYG @ KC17–20KC
2013 · W4NYG @ KC7–31KC
2009 · W4NYG @ KC27–16NYG
2005 · W15KC @ NYG17–27NYG
2001 · W2NYG @ KC13–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–NYG
KCQ1 15:00732Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:131264Turnover0–0
KCQ1 4:09730Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 0:43714Touchdown0–6
KCQ2 13:261676Field goal3–6
NYGQ2 4:0939Punt3–6
KCQ2 2:4738Punt3–6
NYGQ2 1:4336Punt3–6
KCQ2 0:57211End of half3–6
NYGQ3 15:0032Punt3–6
KCQ3 12:38933Punt3–6
NYGQ3 7:071268Turnover on downs3–6
KCQ3 1:35654Field goal6–6
NYGQ4 13:3030Punt6–6
KCQ4 13:0637Punt6–6
NYGQ4 11:40958Punt6–6
KCQ4 7:35312Turnover6–6
NYGQ4 6:3659Punt6–6
KCQ4 4:08413Turnover6–6
NYGQ4 2:07415Field goal6–9
KCQ4 1:38961Field goal9–9
NYGQ4 0:0100End of half9–9
KCOT626Punt9–9
NYGOT875Field goal9–12

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith27/4023002
Travis Kelce0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt18734.10
Alex Smith5275.40
Tyreek Hill11616.00
Charcandrick West4153.80
Akeem Hunt133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8141090
Tyreek Hill77680
De'Anthony Thomas22110
Ross Travis13110
Charcandrick West4490
Demarcus Robinson1370
Kareem Hunt3440
Demetrius Harris0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning19/3520500
Shane Vereen0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa20743.71
Wayne Gallman6193.20
Shane Vereen2136.50
Eli Manning252.50
Kalif Raymond1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roger Lewis34550
Tavarres King35480
Travis Rudolph36340
Orleans Darkwa24160
Shane Vereen33150
Kalif Raymond11120
Evan Engram1690
Rhett Ellison1170
Jerell Adams1160
Wayne Gallman1430

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -102.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.30