Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.041
- 45.7%Success rate42.4%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.087
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.026
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- 43.7%Third-down rate39.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 2.01Points / drive1.87
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/28 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 167 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/32 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 29 | 220 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83