Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play+0.041
- 45.7%Success rate42.4%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.087
- +0.042EPA / rush-0.026
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- 43.7%Third-down rate39.9%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 2.01Points / drive1.87
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 26 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:53 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:29 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 4:23 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 2:48 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q2 14:46 | 13 | 76 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 6:36 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| KC | Q2 2:47 | 4 | 35 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 1:39 | 5 | 32 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 0:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NYG | Q3 12:01 | 7 | 35 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| KC | Q3 8:38 | 10 | 58 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NYG | Q3 3:56 | 6 | 75 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| KC | Q3 0:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–13 |
| NYG | Q4 14:45 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| KC | Q4 12:52 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| NYG | Q4 8:29 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| KC | Q4 2:48 | 4 | 0 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| NYG | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–27 |
| KC | Q4 1:38 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| NYG | Q4 0:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/28 | 176 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 167 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/32 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 29 | 220 | 7.6 | 2 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.83