2021 · Week 8

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

17·20

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

KC -10.5

Total

53

Model margin

+6.7est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.141EPA / play+0.140
  • 40.2%Success rate51.1%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.024
  • 5.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -4.62CPOE+2.81
  • 35.9%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.66
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3KC @ NYG22–9KC
2017 · W11KC @ NYG9–12NYG
2013 · W4NYG @ KC7–31KC
2009 · W4NYG @ KC27–16NYG
2005 · W15KC @ NYG17–27NYG
2001 · W2NYG @ KC13–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–KC
KCQ1 15:001370Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 8:1722Turnover0–0
KCQ1 7:37413Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 6:1235Punt0–7
KCQ1 4:50610Punt0–7
NYGQ1 3:16985Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 14:1432Punt7–7
NYGQ2 13:2032Punt7–7
KCQ2 12:231168Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 6:37773Field goal10–14
KCQ2 2:45517Punt10–14
NYGQ2 1:36625End of half10–14
NYGQ3 15:0039Punt10–14
KCQ3 12:40631Punt10–14
NYGQ3 9:38429Punt10–14
KCQ3 7:33961Turnover10–14
NYGQ3 3:27947Touchdown17–14
KCQ4 14:531352Field goal17–17
NYGQ4 8:53934Punt17–17
KCQ4 4:411045Field goal17–20
NYGQ4 1:074-10Turnover on downs17–20
KCQ4 0:2500End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones22/3222221
Kadarius Toney1/11900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker15604.00
Daniel Jones5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Ross23720
Devontae Booker56650
Kadarius Toney45260
Sterling Shepard47250
Evan Engram34151
Kyle Rudolph23121
Collin Johnson22100
Darius Slayton0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/4827511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams13493.80
Derrick Gore11484.41
Patrick Mahomes3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill1218941
Mecole Hardman57630
Darrel Williams66610
Travis Kelce46270
Demarcus Robinson11180
Byron Pringle12120
Josh Gordon0100
Blake Bell0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.70