Closing spread
KC -10.5
Total
53
Model margin
+6.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play+0.140
- 40.2%Success rate51.1%
- -0.146EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.024
- 5.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- -4.62CPOE+2.81
- 35.9%Third-down rate52.1%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.20Points / drive2.66
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 22/32 | 222 | 2 | 1 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Ross | 2 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Collin Johnson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/48 | 275 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 18 | 94 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 5 | 7 | 63 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.99
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.70