Closing spread
NYG -9
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play-0.123
- 44.1%Success rate36.4%
- +0.178EPA / dropback-0.113
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- +2.61CPOE-4.70
- 42.5%Third-down rate27.1%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
- 2.02Points / drive1.20
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/34 | 292 | 3 | 1 |
| David Carr | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 11 | 16 | 134 | 2 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 3 | 54 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 15/32 | 127 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Ryan | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Bobby Engram | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
0.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.36