2009 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

27·16

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -9

Total

43

Model margin

+3.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

0.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.062EPA / play-0.123
  • 44.1%Success rate36.4%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback-0.113
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.139
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +2.61CPOE-4.70
  • 42.5%Third-down rate27.1%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate56.9%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.20
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3KC @ NYG22–9KC
2021 · W8NYG @ KC17–20KC
2017 · W11KC @ NYG9–12NYG
2013 · W4NYG @ KC7–31KC
2005 · W15KC @ NYG17–27NYG
2001 · W2NYG @ KC13–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–KC
KCQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
NYGQ1 14:48516Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 12:4438Punt7–0
NYGQ1 10:16513Turnover7–0
KCQ1 7:33520Field goal7–3
NYGQ1 4:58864Turnover7–3
KCQ1 1:4535Punt7–3
NYGQ1 0:12556Touchdown14–3
KCQ2 13:333-1Punt14–3
NYGQ2 12:36522Punt14–3
KCQ2 10:24310Punt14–3
NYGQ2 8:16513Punt14–3
KCQ2 5:50746Punt14–3
NYGQ2 1:49780Field goal17–3
NYGQ3 15:00830Field goal20–3
KCQ3 10:223-3Punt20–3
NYGQ3 7:14965Missed field goal20–3
KCQ3 3:0056Punt20–3
NYGQ3 0:25666Touchdown27–3
KCQ4 13:171229Touchdown27–9
NYGQ4 9:2631Punt27–9
KCQ4 8:281354Touchdown27–16
NYGQ4 4:543-4Punt27–16
KCQ4 3:566-5Turnover on downs27–16
NYGQ4 2:0057Turnover on downs27–16
KCQ4 0:15124End of half27–16

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3429231
David Carr0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs21924.40
Ahmad Bradshaw12645.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith11161342
Hakeem Nicks13541
Mario Manningham18430
Kevin Boss45410
Travis Beckum11150
Brandon Jacobs11-40

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel15/3212720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson18532.90
Matt Cassel4256.30
Jamaal Charles22412.00
Jackie Battle133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean Ryan57581
Bobby Engram25300
Mark Bradley25190
Dwayne Bowe14110
Bobby Wade2581
Larry Johnson3510
Leonard Pope0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -93.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

0.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.36