Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.142EPA / play+0.023
- 40.2%Success rate42.0%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.065
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.07CPOE-2.44
- 32.2%Third-down rate34.4%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.06Points / drive1.79
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/37 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Wilson | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 10 | 16 | 164 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 3 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| David Wilson | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/41 | 288 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean McGrath | 5 | 5 | 64 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 2 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.01