2013 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

7·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.142EPA / play+0.023
  • 40.2%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.235EPA / rush-0.065
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.07CPOE-2.44
  • 32.2%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.79
  • 4.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 4–3 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 32.9 points. KC are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W3KC @ NYG22–9KC
2021 · W8NYG @ KC17–20KC
2017 · W11KC @ NYG9–12NYG
2009 · W4NYG @ KC27–16NYG
2005 · W15KC @ NYG17–27NYG
2001 · W2NYG @ KC13–3NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–KC
KCQ1 15:00623Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:00311Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:25415Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:18624Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:251282Touchdown0–7
NYGQ2 14:47274Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 13:53938Punt7–7
NYGQ2 9:19623Turnover7–7
KCQ2 5:4623Turnover7–7
NYGQ2 4:573-4Punt7–7
KCQ2 3:48431Field goal7–10
NYGQ2 1:55954Missed field goal7–10
KCQ2 0:0200End of half7–10
NYGQ3 15:003-1Punt7–10
KCQ3 13:57626Turnover7–10
NYGQ3 11:5539Punt7–10
KCQ3 9:53423Punt7–10
NYGQ3 7:3733Turnover7–10
KCQ3 6:28311Turnover7–10
NYGQ3 5:2131Punt7–10
KCQ3 4:1736Punt7–10
NYGQ3 3:15419Opp touchdown7–17
NYGQ3 1:34625Punt7–17
KCQ4 15:0016100Touchdown7–24
NYGQ4 5:43417Turnover7–24
KCQ4 4:31335Touchdown7–31
NYGQ4 3:06843Turnover on downs7–31
KCQ4 0:4400End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3721711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Wilson13554.20
Da'Rel Scott5265.20
Eli Manning2126.00
Brandon Jacobs155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz10161641
Hakeem Nicks39330
David Wilson2380
Rueben Randle1470
Brandon Jacobs1150
Bear Pascoe0100
Brandon Myers0100
Da'Rel Scott1200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith24/4128832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles18653.60
Alex Smith7375.30
Knile Davis122.00
Chase Daniel2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sean McGrath55641
Jamaal Charles511621
Dwayne Bowe47581
Dexter McCluster55480
Kevin Brock22270
Donnie Avery210230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.01