2001 · Week 3
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 19mph
Closing spread
KC -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.103
- 43.9%Success rate38.9%
- +0.002EPA / dropback-0.101
- +0.032EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- 36.1%Third-down rate34.9%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
- 1.54Points / drive1.18
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–0 since 1999
KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 21/26 | 307 | 3 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 3/4 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 23 | 147 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 6 | 88 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes | 5 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Chris Thomas | 4 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Derrick Alexander | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jason Dunn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 11/27 | 116 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 5 | 11 | 55 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.06