NFL Intelligence

2001 · Week 3

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

45·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

35.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

Commanders
Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapCommanders

+0.014EPA / play-0.103
43.9%Success rate38.9%
+0.002EPA / dropback-0.101
+0.032EPA / rush-0.105
10.8%Explosive rate8.6%
36.1%Third-down rate34.9%
50.6%Red-zone TD rate43.9%
1.54Points / drive1.18
3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
-0.011EPA / play allowed-0.069

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–0 since 1999

KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
Season	Matchup	Score	Winner
2025 · W8	WAS @ KC	7–28	KC
2021 · W6	KC @ WAS	31–13	KC
2017 · W4	WAS @ KC	20–29	KC
2013 · W14	KC @ WAS	45–10	KC
2009 · W6	KC @ WAS	14–6	KC
2005 · W6	WAS @ KC	21–28	KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
Ball	Start	Plays	Yards	Result	KC–WAS
KC	Q1 15:00	5	17	Punt	0–0
WAS	Q1 12:18	13	61	Field goal	0–3
KC	Q1 5:18	4	10	Punt	0–3
WAS	Q1 3:17	4	14	Turnover on downs	0–3
KC	Q1 1:33	13	80	Touchdown	7–3
WAS	Q2 9:43	4	18	Punt	7–3
KC	Q2 6:50	5	64	Touchdown	14–3
WAS	Q2 4:03	2	26	Touchdown	14–10
KC	Q2 3:39	6	60	Touchdown	21–10
WAS	Q2 1:20	3	8	Punt	21–10
KC	Q2 0:32	3	70	Touchdown	28–10
WAS	Q2 0:10	1	-1	End of half	28–10
WAS	Q3 15:00	10	56	Field goal	28–13
KC	Q3 10:10	9	75	Touchdown	35–13
WAS	Q3 4:22	3	9	Punt	35–13
KC	Q3 2:39	6	52	Field goal	38–13
WAS	Q4 14:51	3	3	Punt	38–13
KC	Q4 13:20	6	63	Touchdown	45–13
WAS	Q4 10:21	3	-1	Punt	45–13
KC	Q4 7:55	9	50	Punt	45–13
WAS	Q4 3:07	3	4	Punt	45–13
KC	Q4 2:08	4	6	Turnover on downs	45–13
WAS	Q4 0:23	2	21	Turnover	45–13
KC	Q4 0:03	1	-1	End of half	45–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Trent Green	21/26	307	3	0
Todd Collins	3/4	40	0	0

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg	TD
Priest Holmes	23	147	6.4	2
Derrick Alexander	1	15	15.0	0
Todd Collins	2	6	3.0	0
Trent Green	1	2	2.0	0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Tony Gonzalez	5	6	88	1
Priest Holmes	5	5	78	1
Chris Thomas	4	5	54	1
Derrick Alexander	3	5	48	0
Mikhael Ricks	3	3	40	0
Larry Parker	1	2	11	0
Jason Dunn	0	1	0	0

Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT
Tony Banks	11/27	116	1	1

Rushing

Player	Car	Yds	Avg
Stephen Davis	13	80	6.2
Tony Banks	3	19	6.3
Ki-Jana Carter	2	3	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
Rod Gardner	5	11	55	1
Kevin Lockett	2	4	33	0
Michael Westbrook	2	5	17	0
Stephen Davis	2	2	11	0
Stephen Alexander	0	3	0	0
Walter Rasby	0	1	0	0

Where this game is likely to land

Model
Smooth (normal)
Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
Home-field advantage+2.56
Quarterback adjustment0.00
Rest differential-0.08
Expected margin+2.06