2025 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

7·28

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

KC -10.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.042
  • 46.4%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.060
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +0.67CPOE-1.09
  • 37.2%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.23
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–0 since 1999

KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 7-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W6KC @ WAS31–13KC
2017 · W4WAS @ KC20–29KC
2013 · W14KC @ WAS45–10KC
2009 · W6KC @ WAS14–6KC
2005 · W6WAS @ KC21–28KC
2001 · W3KC @ WAS45–13KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–KC
WASQ1 15:00939Turnover0–0
KCQ1 9:42942Turnover0–0
WASQ1 5:35858Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 1:01617Turnover0–0
WASQ2 12:59531Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ2 10:25972Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 5:461066Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 0:58525End of half7–7
KCQ3 15:001065Touchdown7–14
WASQ3 10:12525Punt7–14
KCQ3 8:05875Touchdown7–21
WASQ3 3:20617Punt7–21
KCQ4 14:5413119Touchdown7–28
WASQ4 7:5236Punt7–28
KCQ4 6:46818Punt7–28
WASQ4 2:16718Turnover7–28
KCQ4 0:1200End of half7–28

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota21/3021312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota8283.50
Jacory Croskey-Merritt9252.80
Jeremy McNichols144.00
Chris Rodriguez Jr.122.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy McNichols56640
Terry McLaurin34541
Luke McCaffrey33240
John Bates11220
Ben Sinnott11220
Zach Ertz46160
Deebo Samuel Sr.36110
Jaylin Lane1200
Jacory Croskey-Merritt0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes25/3429932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco12584.80
Kareem Hunt9404.41
Patrick Mahomes4307.50
Rashee Rice2126.00
Brashard Smith382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce68991
Rashee Rice99931
Xavier Worthy57530
JuJu Smith-Schuster22290
Noah Gray24230
Kareem Hunt1121
Marquise Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.12