2025 · Week 8
Final
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
KC -10.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.042
- 46.4%Success rate44.5%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.67CPOE-1.09
- 37.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 2.03Points / drive2.23
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–0 since 1999
KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/30 | 213 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McNichols | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 25/34 | 299 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 99 | 1 |
| Rashee Rice | 9 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.12