2017 · Week 4
Final
Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.082
- 40.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.00CPOE+4.58
- 32.5%Third-down rate39.2%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.61Points / drive2.21
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–0 since 1999
KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14/24 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 89 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 3 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| Josh Doctson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 27/37 | 293 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 21 | 101 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 111 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.29