2017 · Week 4

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

20·29

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

KC -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.082
  • 40.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.071
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.00CPOE+4.58
  • 32.5%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.21
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–0 since 1999

KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 7-0 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8WAS @ KC7–28KC
2021 · W6KC @ WAS31–13KC
2013 · W14KC @ WAS45–10KC
2009 · W6KC @ WAS14–6KC
2005 · W6WAS @ KC21–28KC
2001 · W3KC @ WAS45–13KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–KC
WASQ1 15:00670Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 11:523-7Punt7–0
WASQ1 10:261350Field goal10–0
KCQ1 2:47849Punt10–0
WASQ2 12:44533Punt10–0
KCQ2 10:15935Punt10–0
WASQ2 5:5537Punt10–0
KCQ2 5:01768Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 1:54420Punt10–7
KCQ2 1:05655Missed field goal10–7
WASQ2 0:0600End of half10–7
KCQ3 15:001155Touchdown10–14
WASQ3 9:20375Touchdown17–14
KCQ3 7:421263Field goal17–17
WASQ3 0:01531Punt17–17
KCQ4 13:011461Field goal17–20
WASQ4 4:51953Field goal20–20
KCQ4 0:47450Field goal20–23
WASQ4 0:041-7Opp touchdown20–29

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins14/2422020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kirk Cousins7385.40
Samaje Perine6274.50
Chris Thompson6233.80
Rob Kelley7233.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis23890
Terrelle Pryor35701
Josh Doctson23270
Jordan Reed35210
Ryan Grant23161
Chris Thompson1240
Niles Paul0100
Rob Kelley0100
Jamison Crowder11-70

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith27/3729310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt211014.80
Alex Smith7568.01
Albert Wilson166.00
Travis Kelce133.00
Charcandrick West122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce781111
Albert Wilson44630
Tyreek Hill56350
Charcandrick West55330
Chris Conley24310
Kareem Hunt44200
Demetrius Harris0300
Akeem Hunt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.29