2013 · Week 14

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

45·10

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.023EPA / play-0.058
  • 42.0%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.44CPOE-3.92
  • 34.4%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.37
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–0 since 1999

KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8WAS @ KC7–28KC
2021 · W6KC @ WAS31–13KC
2017 · W4WAS @ KC20–29KC
2009 · W6KC @ WAS14–6KC
2005 · W6WAS @ KC21–28KC
2001 · W3KC @ WAS45–13KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–WAS
KCQ1 15:00752Field goal3–0
WASQ1 11:30616Punt3–0
KCQ1 8:46513Touchdown10–0
WASQ1 5:52633Turnover10–0
KCQ1 2:31324Touchdown17–0
WASQ1 1:0244Punt17–0
KCQ2 13:52541Touchdown24–0
WASQ2 11:2739Opp touchdown31–0
WASQ2 9:453-3Punt31–0
KCQ2 7:48735Punt31–0
WASQ2 3:49780Touchdown37–7
KCQ2 1:0700Touchdown38–7
WASQ2 0:53520Field goal38–10
WASQ3 15:0033Punt38–10
KCQ3 13:4635Punt38–10
WASQ3 11:58527Punt38–10
KCQ3 10:141274Missed field goal38–10
WASQ3 4:01519Punt38–10
KCQ3 1:53680Touchdown45–10
WASQ4 13:37618Punt45–10
KCQ4 10:27519Turnover45–10
WASQ4 7:25420Turnover45–10
KCQ4 6:4630Punt45–10
WASQ4 5:1052Turnover on downs45–10
KCQ4 4:2346Turnover on downs45–10
WASQ4 2:2249Turnover on downs45–10
KCQ4 1:4300End of half45–10

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith14/2013720
Chase Daniel1/31701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles191507.91
Knile Davis11302.71
Cyrus Gray382.70
Alex Smith273.50
Chase Daniel3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe45701
Dexter McCluster45210
Sean McGrath23200
Knile Davis12170
Junior Hemingway12110
Jamaal Charles2381
Donnie Avery1270
Cyrus Gray0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III12/2616411
Kirk Cousins7/165900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris12312.60
Robert Griffin III4297.30
Roy Helu155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aldrick Robinson46670
Logan Paulsen35441
Pierre Garcon512370
Santana Moss36300
Niles Paul11250
Josh Morgan13150
Evan Royster1130
Roy Helu1420
Fred Davis0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.75