2013 · Week 14
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 30°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.023EPA / play-0.058
- 42.0%Success rate42.2%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.44CPOE-3.92
- 34.4%Third-down rate40.7%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.79Points / drive1.37
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–0 since 1999
KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/20 | 137 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 1/3 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 19 | 150 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Knile Davis | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Cyrus Gray | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Cyrus Gray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 12/26 | 164 | 1 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 7/16 | 59 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldrick Robinson | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 3 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 12 | 37 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75