2021 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
KC -6
Total
54
Model margin
-1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play-0.036
- 51.1%Success rate44.8%
- +0.216EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.81CPOE-0.08
- 52.1%Third-down rate38.3%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 2.66Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–0 since 1999
KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 32/47 | 397 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 21 | 62 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Joseph Fortson | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 24/39 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 8 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 4 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.35