2021 · Week 6

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

31·13

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -6

Total

54

Model margin

-1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.140EPA / play-0.036
  • 51.1%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.216EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.81CPOE-0.08
  • 52.1%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 2.66Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–0 since 1999

KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8WAS @ KC7–28KC
2017 · W4WAS @ KC20–29KC
2013 · W14KC @ WAS45–10KC
2009 · W6KC @ WAS14–6KC
2005 · W6WAS @ KC21–28KC
2001 · W3KC @ WAS45–13KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–WAS
WASQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:591095Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:091148Field goal7–3
KCQ1 3:30766Turnover7–3
WASQ2 14:5536Punt7–3
KCQ2 13:3937Field goal10–3
WASQ2 12:33835Field goal10–6
KCQ2 8:07623Punt10–6
WASQ2 5:50316Turnover10–6
KCQ2 5:0736Turnover10–6
WASQ2 4:50977Touchdown10–13
KCQ2 1:18677Turnover10–13
WASQ2 0:23314End of half10–13
KCQ3 15:00722Punt10–13
WASQ3 11:34632Missed field goal10–13
KCQ3 8:251163Touchdown17–13
WASQ3 4:0735Punt17–13
KCQ3 2:38941Touchdown24–13
WASQ4 14:02727Punt24–13
KCQ4 10:321696Touchdown31–13
WASQ4 3:1427Turnover31–13
KCQ4 2:4143Turnover on downs31–13
WASQ4 0:2615End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes32/4739722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams21623.02
Patrick Mahomes33110.30
Jerick McKinnon3103.30
Mecole Hardman166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce811990
Tyreek Hill912761
Mecole Hardman45620
Byron Pringle33550
Demarcus Robinson36461
Darrel Williams34270
Joseph Fortson11270
Jerick McKinnon1450

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke24/3918211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.D. McKissic8455.60
Antonio Gibson10444.40
Jaret Patterson155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
J.D. McKissic810650
Ricky Seals-Jones46581
Dyami Brown36300
Terry McLaurin48280
John Bates1170
DeAndre Carter0100
Antonio Gibson2300
Dax Milne0100
Jaret Patterson11-20
Adam Humphries12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

3.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.35