2009 · Week 6
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
WAS -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.047
- 36.4%Success rate41.0%
- -0.113EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.168
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
- -4.70CPOE+1.16
- 27.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 1.20Points / drive1.38
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–0 since 1999
KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 17/32 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 23 | 83 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 14 | 109 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Mark Bradley | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Sean Ryan | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 9/16 | 89 | 0 | 1 |
| Todd Collins | 6/14 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 15 | 109 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Todd Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.44