2009 · Week 6

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

14·6

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

WAS -6.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.123EPA / play-0.047
  • 36.4%Success rate41.0%
  • -0.113EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.139EPA / rush-0.168
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.1%
  • -4.70CPOE+1.16
  • 27.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 56.9%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.38
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 7–0 since 1999

KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 0-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8WAS @ KC7–28KC
2021 · W6KC @ WAS31–13KC
2017 · W4WAS @ KC20–29KC
2013 · W14KC @ WAS45–10KC
2005 · W6WAS @ KC21–28KC
2001 · W3KC @ WAS45–13KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–WAS
KCQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:59310Turnover0–0
KCQ1 12:53717Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:3737Punt0–0
KCQ1 7:341041Turnover on downs0–0
WASQ1 1:52631Punt0–0
KCQ2 14:08525Punt0–0
WASQ2 11:2436Punt0–0
KCQ2 10:20950Field goal3–0
WASQ2 5:343-1Punt3–0
KCQ2 3:3735Punt3–0
WASQ2 2:151057Turnover3–0
WASQ3 15:00658Field goal3–3
KCQ3 11:17938Punt3–3
WASQ3 7:04478Field goal3–6
KCQ3 6:01842Field goal6–6
WASQ3 1:07515Punt6–6
KCQ4 13:3030Punt6–6
WASQ4 11:5630Punt6–6
KCQ4 9:56611Punt6–6
WASQ4 7:1839Punt6–6
KCQ4 5:5559Field goal9–6
WASQ4 3:3632Punt9–6
KCQ4 1:52531Field goal12–6
WASQ4 0:371-7Safety14–6
KCQ4 0:2600End of half14–6

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel17/3218600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson23833.60
Matt Cassel6162.70
Jamaal Charles461.50
Bobby Wade133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe6141090
Bobby Wade34250
Mark Bradley25220
Larry Johnson34120
Sean Ryan12110
Leonard Pope1250
Jamaal Charles1120

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell9/168901
Todd Collins6/147500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis151097.30
Jason Campbell263.00
Devin Thomas122.00
Ladell Betts111.00
Todd Collins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Cooley59570
Santana Moss14420
Antwaan Randle El24230
Clinton Portis34150
Fred Davis11120
Ladell Betts23110
Mike Sellers1140
Devin Thomas0200
Malcolm Kelly0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.73%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.44