2005 · Week 6
Final
Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.097
- 41.3%Success rate45.7%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.042
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 43.1%Third-down rate43.7%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.80Points / drive2.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.058EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 7–0 since 1999
KC have won 7 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 7-0 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 25/41 | 331 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 15/25 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 14 | 18 | 1.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.21