Closing spread
STL -6
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. STL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 19/27 | 204 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 5 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.