Closing spread
STL -6
Total
44
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. STL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 8:10 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 5:04 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:41 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 14:44 | 8 | 13 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:22 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q2 9:32 | 11 | 67 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| LA | Q2 3:18 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 22 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LA | Q3 11:25 | 11 | 99 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| MIA | Q3 5:49 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 10–28 |
| LA | Q3 0:58 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–28 |
| MIA | Q4 13:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–28 |
| LA | Q4 11:19 | 7 | 69 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| MIA | Q4 6:39 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 10–35 |
| LA | Q4 5:25 | 5 | 24 | Touchdown | 10–42 |
| MIA | Q4 2:25 | 8 | 51 | Turnover | 10–42 |
| LA | Q4 0:03 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 19/27 | 204 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 19 | 48 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 5 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.