Closing spread
STL -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:28 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:27 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 9:29 | 4 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:29 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 3:43 | 10 | 39 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:48 | 14 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q2 5:19 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:22 | 2 | 15 | End of half | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q3 13:01 | 7 | 61 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q3 8:28 | 10 | 22 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q3 2:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–14 |
| MIA | Q3 0:41 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LA | Q4 14:21 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–21 |
| MIA | Q4 12:27 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| LA | Q4 8:47 | 11 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| MIA | Q4 4:51 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–31 |
| LA | Q4 4:24 | 10 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| MIA | Q4 2:43 | 3 | 11 | End of half | 14–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/17 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1/1 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 28 | 83 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.21
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.