Closing spread
STL -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 13/17 | 203 | 2 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1/1 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 28 | 83 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.57
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.21
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.28
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.