Closing spread
MIA -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. STL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 10:49 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 7:16 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q1 1:45 | 12 | 106 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 10:59 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–6 |
| MIA | Q2 9:52 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 8:13 | 13 | 51 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| MIA | Q2 1:51 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–9 |
| LA | Q3 13:48 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–9 |
| MIA | Q3 10:46 | 7 | 53 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| LA | Q3 6:10 | 8 | 38 | Turnover | 13–9 |
| MIA | Q3 2:18 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 13–9 |
| LA | Q3 1:28 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 13–12 |
| MIA | Q4 12:14 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 13–12 |
| LA | Q4 10:12 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–12 |
| MIA | Q4 10:04 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 16–12 |
| LA | Q4 6:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–12 |
| MIA | Q4 4:34 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 16–12 |
| LA | Q4 1:50 | 7 | 17 | Turnover | 16–12 |
| MIA | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 13/23 | 166 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 48 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
4.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.