Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutDanny AmendolaWRShoulder· DNP
- OutMario HagganLBThigh· DNP
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBrit MillerRBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableMatt ConrathDTKnee· Full
- QuestionableWilliam HayesDEBack· DNP
- ProbableEugene SimsDEHead· Full
- ProbableMatt DanielsSThigh· Full
- ProbableSam BradfordQBKnee· Full
Dolphins
- OutDaniel ThomasRBConcussion· DNP
- OutRichard MarshallCBBack· DNP
- QuestionableKevin BurnettLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableBrian HartlineWRQuadricep· Full
- ProbableNolan CarrollCBAchilles· Full
- ProbableReggie BushRBKnee· Full
- ProbableReshad JonesSBack· Full
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 50 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:25 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:46 | 7 | 78 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q1 5:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q1 2:51 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q1 0:02 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 13:26 | 9 | 49 | Missed field goal | 6–0 |
| MIA | Q2 8:34 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:27 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q2 5:16 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:19 | 13 | 86 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| MIA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 56 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| LA | Q3 9:40 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 6–17 |
| MIA | Q3 5:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LA | Q3 4:36 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 6–17 |
| MIA | Q3 1:03 | 5 | -2 | Punt | 6–17 |
| LA | Q4 14:03 | 11 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| MIA | Q4 8:30 | 10 | 31 | Punt | 14–17 |
| LA | Q4 1:41 | 2 | 11 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:55 | 2 | 13 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:51 | 2 | 28 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:42 | 1 | 0 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| LA | Q4 0:37 | 1 | -3 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/29 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 17 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Moore | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.