Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
38
Model margin
+0.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/29 | 185 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 17 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Moore | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
3.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.95
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.