2024 · Week 10

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

23·15

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRams
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.038
  • 44.3%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.246EPA / rush-0.069
  • 7.3%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +3.08CPOE-0.97
  • 35.4%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.09
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–1 since 1999

MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. LA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W8LA @ MIA17–28MIA
2016 · W11MIA @ LA14–10MIA
2012 · W6STL @ MIA14–17MIA
2008 · W13MIA @ STL16–12MIA
2004 · W7STL @ MIA14–31MIA
2001 · W3MIA @ STL10–42RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LA
MIAQ1 15:00570Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 12:0137Punt7–0
MIAQ1 9:5630Punt7–0
LAQ1 9:383-9Punt7–0
MIAQ1 8:08616Punt7–0
LAQ1 4:12621Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 1:01422Field goal10–0
LAQ2 14:07510Punt10–0
MIAQ2 10:592-4Turnover10–0
LAQ2 10:0813Turnover10–0
MIAQ2 9:554-3Turnover10–0
LAQ2 7:37520Field goal10–3
MIAQ2 5:46510Punt10–3
LAQ2 2:13954Field goal10–6
LAQ3 15:00849Missed field goal10–6
MIAQ3 9:11653Touchdown17–6
LAQ3 5:321039Field goal17–9
MIAQ4 14:551036Field goal20–9
LAQ4 9:07766Field goal20–12
MIAQ4 6:31739Field goal23–12
LAQ4 2:381267Field goal23–15
MIAQ4 0:3900End of half23–15

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa20/2820711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane12373.10
Malik Washington11818.01
Tyreek Hill2115.50
Jaylen Wright530.60
Tua Tagovailoa1-1-1.00
Jaylen Waddle1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle36570
Jonnu Smith34450
Raheem Mostert23340
Odell Beckham Jr.22170
Malik Washington12170
Tyreek Hill34161
De'Von Achane55150
Durham Smythe1160
Julian Hill0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford32/4629301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams15624.10
Blake Corum284.00
Matthew Stafford100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua914980
Cooper Kupp77800
Davis Allen56340
Tyler Johnson34250
Demarcus Robinson15230
Kyren Williams56200
Blake Corum1170
Tutu Atwell1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.57