Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.038
- 44.3%Success rate47.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.246EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.3%Explosive rate7.9%
- +3.08CPOE-0.97
- 35.4%Third-down rate37.0%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate49.9%
- 1.92Points / drive2.09
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. LA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 20/28 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/46 | 293 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 14 | 98 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 5 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Blake Corum | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57