Closing spread
LA -1
Total
39
Model margin
-6.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.203
- 42.2%Success rate36.6%
- +0.062EPA / dropback-0.222
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.170
- 10.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.52CPOE-6.92
- 37.0%Third-down rate32.2%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.80Points / drive0.97
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. LA are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 24/34 | 172 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 8 | 10 | 79 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 4 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Dion Sims | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 17/31 | 134 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.99