2016 · Week 11

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

14·10

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

LA -1

Total

39

Model margin

-6.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRams
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.203
  • 42.2%Success rate36.6%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback-0.222
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.170
  • 10.4%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +4.52CPOE-6.92
  • 37.0%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.80Points / drive0.97
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–1 since 1999

MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. LA are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10MIA @ LA23–15MIA
2020 · W8LA @ MIA17–28MIA
2012 · W6STL @ MIA14–17MIA
2008 · W13MIA @ STL16–12MIA
2004 · W7STL @ MIA14–31MIA
2001 · W3MIA @ STL10–42RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LA
LAQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:51417Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:42453Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 9:4739Punt0–7
LAQ1 7:2833Punt0–7
MIAQ1 5:55745Punt0–7
LAQ1 1:08526Punt0–7
MIAQ2 14:213-2Punt0–7
LAQ2 12:0338Punt0–7
MIAQ2 9:53839Punt0–7
LAQ2 5:34617Punt0–7
MIAQ2 1:48511Punt0–7
LAQ2 0:1000End of half0–7
MIAQ3 15:0033Punt0–7
LAQ3 13:20210Turnover0–7
MIAQ3 13:0510Turnover0–7
LAQ3 12:54811Punt0–7
MIAQ3 9:2648Punt0–7
LAQ3 7:44954Field goal0–10
MIAQ3 1:394-2Punt0–10
LAQ4 14:1141Punt0–10
MIAQ4 12:043-10Punt0–10
LAQ4 11:07620Missed field goal0–10
MIAQ4 6:40862Touchdown7–10
LAQ4 4:02311Punt7–10
MIAQ4 2:11760Touchdown14–10
LAQ4 0:36512End of half14–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill24/3417221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi16774.80
Ryan Tannehill2199.50
Kenyan Drake122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker810791
Kenny Stills49330
Jarvis Landry55281
Dion Sims34200
Jay Ajayi3470
MarQueis Gray1150
Damien Williams0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff17/3113400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley20763.81
Jared Goff4112.80
Tavon Austin284.00
Benny Cunningham273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt57430
Lance Kendricks47380
Brian Quick35210
Tavon Austin12210
Pharoh Cooper11100
Tyler Higbee2340
Todd Gurley0200
Benny Cunningham12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%3.3%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.4%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.99