2020 · Week 8

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

17·28

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.026
  • 44.6%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.032EPA / dropback+0.115
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.124
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.37CPOE+1.23
  • 44.2%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.99
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 6–1 since 1999

MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10MIA @ LA23–15MIA
2016 · W11MIA @ LA14–10MIA
2012 · W6STL @ MIA14–17MIA
2008 · W13MIA @ STL16–12MIA
2004 · W7STL @ MIA14–31MIA
2001 · W3MIA @ STL10–42RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–MIA
LAQ1 15:0058Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:2120Turnover0–0
LAQ1 12:38315Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 11:13512Punt7–0
LAQ1 8:42742Punt7–0
MIAQ1 5:5535Punt7–0
LAQ1 4:11427Turnover7–0
MIAQ1 2:55633Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 15:00645Punt7–7
MIAQ2 11:1114Turnover7–7
LAQ2 11:032-15Opp touchdown7–14
LAQ2 10:0134Opp touchdown7–21
LAQ2 8:44733Turnover7–21
MIAQ2 4:4436Punt7–21
LAQ2 3:4930Turnover7–27
MIAQ2 2:5111Touchdown7–28
LAQ2 2:471465Field goal10–28
MIAQ2 0:1100End of half10–28
MIAQ3 15:0039Punt10–28
LAQ3 12:483-3Punt10–28
MIAQ3 11:05515Punt10–28
LAQ3 8:16520Punt10–28
MIAQ3 6:0734Punt10–28
LAQ3 5:02844Turnover on downs10–28
MIAQ3 1:22413Punt10–28
LAQ4 14:071089Touchdown17–28
MIAQ4 9:58627Punt17–28
LAQ4 6:301062Missed field goal17–28
MIAQ4 3:38618Punt17–28
LAQ4 1:08435End of half17–28

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff35/6135512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson8475.90
Malcolm Brown10404.00
Cam Akers9353.90
Robert Woods294.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp11201100
Robert Woods78851
Josh Reynolds49440
Gerald Everett59320
Van Jefferson22230
Cam Akers11190
Malcolm Brown22170
Tyler Higbee24140
Darrell Henderson12110

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa12/229310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin18472.61
Matt Breida4133.30
Tua Tagovailoa200.00
Malcolm Perry1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Durham Smythe22160
Myles Gaskin36160
Jakeem Grant12150
Preston Williams25150
Isaiah Ford11100
Malcolm Perry11100
Mike Gesicki1280
DeVante Parker1231
Adam Shaheen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

39.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+1.63