Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.026
- 44.6%Success rate46.8%
- +0.032EPA / dropback+0.115
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.124
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.37CPOE+1.23
- 44.2%Third-down rate38.5%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.76Points / drive1.99
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–1 since 1999
MIA have won 6 straight. Meetings average 37.6 points. MIA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 35/61 | 355 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 20 | 110 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 7 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12/22 | 93 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Malcolm Perry | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Adam Shaheen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
39.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+1.63