Closing spread
OAK -18
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:26 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 6:16 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 3:33 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q2 14:09 | 1 | 40 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 13:52 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q2 10:13 | 9 | 56 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q2 3:16 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q2 1:39 | 4 | -6 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–21 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 19 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| DAL | Q3 5:11 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| LV | Q3 0:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–28 |
| DAL | Q4 14:09 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 14–28 |
| LV | Q4 12:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–28 |
| DAL | Q4 11:12 | 12 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 14–28 |
| LV | Q4 6:17 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 14–28 |
| DAL | Q4 3:32 | 6 | 14 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| LV | Q4 1:21 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 21–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 14/22 | 126 | 2 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 16 | 25 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tim Seder | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.