Closing spread
OAK -18
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 14/22 | 126 | 2 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 1/5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 16 | 25 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tim Seder | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 2 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Emmitt Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| J.J. Huggins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.