Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
46
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/27 | 212 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.