Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
46
Model margin
+2.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cowboys
- OutDavid IrvingDEConcussion· DNP
- OutJustin DurantLBConcussion· Full
- OutOrlando ScandrickCBBack· DNP
- QuestionableBrice ButlerWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableJames HannaTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLa'el CollinsTBack· Limited
- QuestionableMaliek CollinsDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableSean LeeLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableTyron SmithTBack· Limited
Raiders
- OutAmari CooperWRAnkle· DNP
- OutClive WalfordTEConcussion· DNP
- OutMario EdwardsDEAnkle· DNP
- OutObi MelifonwuSHip· DNP
- DoubtfulDavid AmersonCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableDenico AutryDEHand· Full
- QuestionableJon FelicianoGConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableKeith McGillSKnee· Limited
- DNPBruce IrvinLBNot Injury Related
- DNPKhalil MackDENot Injury Related
- DNPMarshawn LynchRBNot Injury Related
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 50 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 9:04 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:56 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 3:49 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:04 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 10–0 |
| DAL | Q2 8:12 | 9 | 11 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 3:08 | 13 | 53 | Missed field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 95 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DAL | Q3 8:03 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q3 7:14 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 6:14 | 13 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 0:45 | 11 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| DAL | Q4 10:35 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 17–17 |
| LV | Q4 8:07 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DAL | Q4 6:30 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 1:44 | 9 | 33 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| DAL | Q4 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 18/27 | 212 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 2 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.