Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDenarius MooreWRShoulder· DNP
- OutJason HunterDEFoot· DNP
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDarren McFaddenRBHamstring· Full
- QuestionableKaluka MaiavaLBRibs· Limited
- QuestionableKevin BurnettLBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableMenelik WatsonTIllness· Full
- QuestionableMike JenkinsCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableMychal RiveraTEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableSio MooreLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableDaniel MuirDTKnee· Full
Cowboys
- OutDeVonte HollomanLBNeck· Limited
- OutDwayne HarrisWRHamstring· DNP
- OutJustin DurantLBHamstring· DNP
- OutMorris ClaiborneCBHamstring· DNP
- OutSean LeeLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableGavin EscobarTEHamstring· Limited
- ProbableJason HatcherDTNeck· Limited
- ProbableDeMarcus WareDEThigh· Full
- ProbableDez BryantWRBack· Full
- ProbableGeorge SelvieDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableJ.J. WilcoxSKnee· Full
- ProbableMiles AustinWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableNick HaydenDTRibs· Full
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 14:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:07 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:13 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:50 | 4 | 34 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:35 | 9 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:53 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| DAL | Q1 0:47 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:43 | 12 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 10:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:42 | 13 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:56 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 21–14 |
| DAL | Q3 11:29 | 12 | 107 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LV | Q3 5:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 21–21 |
| DAL | Q3 4:40 | 9 | 58 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| LV | Q4 14:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–28 |
| DAL | Q4 12:40 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 21–28 |
| LV | Q4 10:21 | 4 | 36 | Turnover | 21–28 |
| DAL | Q4 8:39 | 14 | 65 | Field goal | 21–31 |
| LV | Q4 1:56 | 6 | 53 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| DAL | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/32 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Dunbar | 12 | 82 | 6.8 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.