Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/32 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Dunbar | 12 | 82 | 6.8 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 17 | 63 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.