Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
51
Model margin
+5.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.084
- 45.2%Success rate46.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.168
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.92CPOE+1.99
- 36.8%Third-down rate43.7%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.87Points / drive2.44
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/39 | 373 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 8 | 9 | 134 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 4 | 102 | 1 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Daniel Helm | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 32/47 | 375 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 5 | 8 | 106 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 7 | 10 | 104 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 6 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.89