2021 · Week 12

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

36·33

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

51

Model margin

+5.9est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.084
  • 45.2%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.062
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.92CPOE+1.99
  • 36.8%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.44
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DAL @ LV33–16DAL
2017 · W15DAL @ OAK20–17DAL
2013 · W13OAK @ DAL24–31DAL
2009 · W12OAK @ DAL7–24DAL
2005 · W4DAL @ OAK13–19RAIDERS
2001 · W4DAL @ OAK21–28RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–DAL
DALQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:00371Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 11:45970Touchdown7–6
LVQ1 7:3832Punt7–6
DALQ1 6:1032Punt7–6
LVQ1 5:171124Touchdown14–6
DALQ1 1:33611Punt14–6
LVQ2 14:431369Field goal17–6
DALQ2 8:46620Missed field goal17–6
LVQ2 6:29416Punt17–6
DALQ2 3:52886Touchdown17–13
LVQ2 0:25315End of half17–13
LVQ3 15:0035Punt17–13
DALQ3 12:52719Punt17–13
LVQ3 10:01660Touchdown24–19
DALQ3 7:1300Touchdown24–19
LVQ3 7:00931Field goal27–19
DALQ3 3:2838Punt27–19
LVQ3 2:12644Punt27–19
DALQ4 14:48888Field goal27–22
LVQ4 12:00783Field goal30–22
DALQ4 8:1833Punt30–22
LVQ4 7:10619Punt30–22
DALQ4 3:41469Touchdown30–30
LVQ4 2:54442Field goal33–30
DALQ4 1:52948Field goal33–33
LVQ4 0:1900End of half33–33
DALOT36Punt33–33
LVOT829Field goal36–33

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3937310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs22874.01
Kenyan Drake7253.60
Derek Carr22110.50
Marcus Mariota242.01
Zay Jones144.00
Hunter Renfrow122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Renfrow891340
DeSean Jackson341021
Zay Jones57590
Darren Waller25330
Josh Jacobs24250
Bryan Edwards11120
Kenyan Drake2250
Foster Moreau1530
Daniel Helm0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott32/4737520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard10363.60
Ezekiel Elliott9252.81
Dak Prescott133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup581060
Cedrick Wilson Jr.7101040
Noah Brown69530
Dalton Schultz37461
Tony Pollard44320
Ezekiel Elliott68240
Sean McKeon11101

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.89