2025 · Week 11

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

33·16

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapRaiders
  • +0.109EPA / play-0.192
  • 47.2%Success rate38.6%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.007EPA / rush-0.304
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
  • +1.89CPOE-0.91
  • 41.3%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.53Points / drive1.25
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. LV are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W12LV @ DAL36–33RAIDERS
2017 · W15DAL @ OAK20–17DAL
2013 · W13OAK @ DAL24–31DAL
2009 · W12OAK @ DAL7–24DAL
2005 · W4DAL @ OAK13–19RAIDERS
2001 · W4DAL @ OAK21–28RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–LV
DALQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
LVQ1 13:21422Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:27311Turnover0–0
LVQ1 9:113-2Field goal0–3
DALQ1 7:55637Field goal3–3
LVQ1 5:36646Field goal3–6
DALQ1 2:02668Touchdown10–6
LVQ2 14:51714Punt10–6
DALQ2 11:491279Touchdown17–6
LVQ2 5:16747Turnover17–6
DALQ2 2:24552Touchdown24–6
LVQ2 1:101040Field goal24–9
LVQ3 15:0034Punt24–9
DALQ3 13:261280Touchdown31–9
LVQ3 6:191466Touchdown31–16
DALQ4 13:2233Punt31–16
LVQ4 11:431-1Safety33–16
DALQ4 11:391249Turnover on downs33–16
LVQ4 3:5641Turnover on downs33–16
DALQ4 2:3100Turnover on downs33–16
LVQ4 0:3600End of half33–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3326840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams22934.20
Malik Davis4205.00
Hunter Luepke155.00
Dak Prescott4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens9111441
CeeDee Lamb57661
Hunter Luepke33360
Jake Ferguson45161
Brevyn Spann-Ford1140
Ryan Flournoy1121
Javonte Williams1100
Jalen Tolbert0100
KaVontae Turpin1200

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith27/4223811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Geno Smith4143.50
Ashton Jeanty671.20
Raheem Mostert263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers712720
Tre Tucker48471
Tyler Lockett33330
Ashton Jeanty68270
Ian Thomas11200
Jack Bech11190
Michael Mayer34130
Raheem Mostert2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-1.20