Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.192
- 47.2%Success rate38.6%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.304
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.7%
- +1.89CPOE-0.91
- 41.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.53Points / drive1.25
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. LV are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/33 | 268 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 22 | 93 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 9 | 11 | 144 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 27/42 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 7 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-1.20