Closing spread
DAL -13.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutJon AlstonLBIllness· DNP
- OutNick MillerWRShin· DNP
- DoubtfulIsaiah EkejiubaLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJavon WalkerWRHamstring· Limited
- ProbableGreg EllisDEKnee· Full
- ProbableRichard SeymourDEBack· Full
Cowboys
- OutKen HamlinSAnkle· DNP
- OutMarc ColomboTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJason WittenTEFoot· Limited
- ProbableDavid BuehlerKright Toe· Full
- ProbableDeMarcus WareLBFoot· Full
- ProbableGerald SensabaughSThumb· Full
- ProbableKeith BrookingLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMarion BarberRBThumb· Full
- ProbableMike JenkinsCBElbow· Full
- ProbableTony RomoQBBack· Full
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:43 | 6 | 54 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:12 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 6:39 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:36 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 3:31 | 5 | 69 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 0:39 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q2 13:09 | 6 | 89 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 10:48 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q2 8:22 | 4 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:58 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q2 4:28 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:31 | 4 | 21 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LV | Q3 12:53 | 12 | 103 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q3 5:37 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 1:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–17 |
| DAL | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LV | Q4 13:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q4 11:31 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LV | Q4 9:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q4 8:12 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LV | Q4 4:45 | 11 | 69 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q4 1:49 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/29 | 309 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 7 | 68 | 9.7 | 1 |
| Tashard Choice | 3 | 67 | 22.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 7 | 11 | 145 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 8 | 107 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Crayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.