Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
46
Model margin
+3.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. OAK are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 11/26 | 212 | 1 | 1 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.