Closing spread
PK
Total
34
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.054
- 39.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- 36.2%Third-down rate35.7%
- 45.6%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
- 1.28Points / drive1.76
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.110
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 11/21 | 138 | 1 | 2 |
| Randall Cunningham | 5/10 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Jason Brookins | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 4 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 27/34 | 337 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 20 | 54 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 9 | 11 | 138 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 1 | 47 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| David Martin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77