2001 · Week 5

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

23·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PK

Total

34

Model margin

+3.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPackers
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.054
  • 39.6%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.149
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • 36.2%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 45.6%Red-zone TD rate63.7%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.76
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.110

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17BAL @ GB41–24BAL
2021 · W15GB @ BAL31–30GB
2017 · W11BAL @ GB23–0BAL
2013 · W6GB @ BAL19–17GB
2009 · W13BAL @ GB14–27GB
2005 · W15GB @ BAL3–48BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–GB
GBQ1 15:00629Turnover0–0
BALQ1 12:31464Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 10:32512Punt7–0
BALQ1 7:14528Turnover7–0
GBQ1 4:54959Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 14:5533Punt7–7
GBQ2 13:46516Field goal7–10
BALQ2 10:59918Punt7–10
GBQ2 6:5336Punt7–10
BALQ2 4:4942Turnover7–10
GBQ2 3:02434Missed field goal7–10
BALQ2 1:4728Turnover7–10
GBQ2 1:19774Touchdown7–17
BALQ2 0:0200End of half7–17
BALQ3 15:00955Turnover7–17
GBQ3 10:294-3Punt7–17
BALQ3 8:04524Field goal10–17
GBQ3 5:461077Touchdown10–24
BALQ3 0:42418Punt10–24
GBQ4 14:0436Punt10–24
BALQ4 12:0435Punt10–24
GBQ4 11:14782Touchdown10–31
BALQ4 6:591162Touchdown17–31
GBQ4 2:5600Touchdown17–31
BALQ4 2:521070Touchdown23–31
GBQ4 0:381-1End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac11/2113812
Randall Cunningham5/107000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen18754.20
Randall Cunningham44010.01
Jason Brookins9333.71
Obafemi Ayanbadejo294.50
Moe Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail48790
Travis Taylor35501
Shannon Sharpe59410
Brandon Stokley36380
Terry Allen1200
Obafemi Ayanbadejo0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre27/3433730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green20542.71
Dorsey Levens273.50
Brett Favre2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Freeman9111381
Donald Driver34690
Corey Bradford11470
Bill Schroeder45340
Ahman Green23180
Dorsey Levens45170
David Martin1190
Bubba Franks2342

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 03.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.77