Closing spread
GB -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.096
- 45.4%Success rate36.3%
- +0.115EPA / dropback-0.003
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.263
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.4%
- +2.82CPOE-1.63
- 40.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 2.19Points / drive1.33
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/32 | 315 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Johnathan Franklin | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 4 | 10 | 113 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 3 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Jarrett Boykin | 1 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Johnathan Franklin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 20/34 | 342 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tandon Doss | 4 | 6 | 99 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 4 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Marlon Brown | 3 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 2 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Billy Bajema | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.45