2017 · Week 11

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

23·0

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Hundley

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPackers
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.023
  • 42.5%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.032
  • 7.2%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -1.33CPOE-1.27
  • 35.3%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.77
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17BAL @ GB41–24BAL
2021 · W15GB @ BAL31–30GB
2013 · W6GB @ BAL19–17GB
2009 · W13BAL @ GB14–27GB
2005 · W15GB @ BAL3–48BAL
2001 · W5BAL @ GB23–31GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–GB
GBQ1 15:00658Turnover0–0
BALQ1 12:461039Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:00629Turnover0–0
BALQ1 4:471037Field goal3–0
GBQ2 14:56718Turnover3–0
BALQ2 11:163-5Punt3–0
GBQ2 9:4838Punt3–0
BALQ2 8:20326Turnover3–0
GBQ2 7:171014Punt3–0
BALQ2 1:3739Field goal6–0
BALQ3 15:00459Touchdown13–0
GBQ3 13:08726Turnover on downs13–0
BALQ3 9:503-1Punt13–0
GBQ3 8:04737Punt13–0
BALQ3 4:5535Punt13–0
GBQ3 3:0149Turnover on downs13–0
BALQ3 1:19515Punt13–0
GBQ4 13:37614Punt13–0
BALQ4 10:58518Punt13–0
GBQ4 7:43331Turnover13–0
BALQ4 6:43411Field goal16–0
GBQ4 4:46515Turnover on downs16–0
BALQ4 3:4044Punt16–0
GBQ4 2:2510Turnover22–0
BALQ4 2:1713Touchdown23–0
GBQ4 2:1236Punt23–0
BALQ4 0:3200End of half23–0

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/2818311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins20492.51
Javorius Allen382.70
Danny Woodhead122.00
Joe Flacco2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace44561
Jeremy Maclin45340
Benjamin Watson11330
Alex Collins47220
Danny Woodhead56210
Javorius Allen1190
Maxx Williams2260
Nick Boyle1220

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Hundley21/3623903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams18573.20
Brett Hundley3196.30
Randall Cobb100.00
Devante Mays3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams8101260
Jamaal Williams46380
Randall Cobb36340
Jordy Nelson26240
Lance Kendricks1450
Richard Rodgers1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.72