Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.023
- 42.5%Success rate45.2%
- -0.054EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.032
- 7.2%Explosive rate6.2%
- -1.33CPOE-1.27
- 35.3%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.79Points / drive1.77
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/28 | 183 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 20 | 49 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Hundley | 21/36 | 239 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Devante Mays | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 10 | 126 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.72