Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.122
- 44.6%Success rate48.0%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.274
- +0.038EPA / rush-0.076
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.86CPOE+5.62
- 41.4%Third-down rate48.8%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.30Points / drive2.39
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 16/20 | 107 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 36 | 216 | 6.0 | 4 |
| Tyler Huntley | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 18/21 | 288 | 1 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1/4 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 9 | 60 | 6.7 | 2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Clayton Tune | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 5 | 6 | 113 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.99
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.09