2025 · Week 17

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

41·24

Packers

Green Bay

QB Malik Willis

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPackers
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.122
  • 44.6%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback+0.274
  • +0.038EPA / rush-0.076
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.86CPOE+5.62
  • 41.4%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.39
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W15GB @ BAL31–30GB
2017 · W11BAL @ GB23–0BAL
2013 · W6GB @ BAL19–17GB
2009 · W13BAL @ GB14–27GB
2005 · W15GB @ BAL3–48BAL
2001 · W5BAL @ GB23–31GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–GB
BALQ1 15:001480Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 6:55279Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 5:441379Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 13:1349Turnover on downs14–7
BALQ2 11:20730Field goal17–7
GBQ2 7:1027Turnover17–7
BALQ2 6:22514Field goal20–7
GBQ2 3:36561Touchdown20–14
BALQ2 1:24855Touchdown27–14
GBQ2 0:1000End of half27–14
GBQ3 15:001068Field goal27–17
BALQ3 9:10610Punt27–17
GBQ3 5:01988Touchdown27–24
BALQ3 2:021285Touchdown34–24
GBQ4 10:10737Turnover34–24
BALQ4 6:561062Touchdown41–24
GBQ4 1:56615Turnover on downs41–24
BALQ4 0:2900End of half41–24

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley16/2010710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry362166.04
Tyler Huntley8607.50
Keaton Mitchell9313.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers45301
Mark Andrews44280
Isaiah Likely33270
Rasheen Ali2380
Rashod Bateman1170
Keaton Mitchell2270
DeAndre Hopkins0100
Charlie Kolar0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis18/2128810
Clayton Tune1/4801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malik Willis9606.72
Emanuel Wilson3165.30
Josh Jacobs430.80
Clayton Tune100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson561131
Romeo Doubs33620
Jayden Reed44410
Bo Melton13340
Matthew Golden13120
Chris Brooks12110
Josh Whyle1180
Emanuel Wilson1180
Dontayvion Wicks1170
Josh Jacobs1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.99
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.09