Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
33
Model margin
+3.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.109
- 42.0%Success rate38.7%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.179
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- 41.1%Third-down rate39.5%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.29Points / drive1.20
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/29 | 144 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8/15 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 19/27 | 253 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62