Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
33
Model margin
+3.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play-0.109
- 42.0%Success rate38.7%
- -0.003EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.179
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- 41.1%Third-down rate39.5%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.29Points / drive1.20
- 3.8%Turnover rate3.2%
- -0.052EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 13:53 | 6 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 11:04 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 8:55 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| GB | Q1 6:52 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| BAL | Q1 5:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| GB | Q1 3:17 | 11 | 57 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| BAL | Q2 12:35 | 17 | 91 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| GB | Q2 4:09 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| BAL | Q2 1:51 | 8 | 63 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| GB | Q2 0:23 | 3 | 29 | End of half | 3–24 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| GB | Q3 9:43 | 7 | 6 | Punt | 3–31 |
| BAL | Q3 7:02 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–31 |
| GB | Q3 5:23 | 9 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 3–31 |
| BAL | Q3 2:14 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 3–34 |
| GB | Q3 0:17 | 2 | -10 | Turnover | 3–34 |
| BAL | Q4 14:51 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 3–41 |
| GB | Q4 13:25 | 12 | 47 | Turnover | 3–41 |
| BAL | Q4 8:06 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 3–41 |
| GB | Q4 5:36 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–41 |
| BAL | Q4 3:41 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–41 |
| GB | Q4 1:50 | 5 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 3–48 |
| GB | Q4 0:17 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 3–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/29 | 144 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8/15 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samkon Gado | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Noah Herron | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 19/27 | 253 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 105 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Kyle Boller | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62