Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-4.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.136EPA / play+0.009
- 48.9%Success rate46.3%
- +0.222EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.003EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +4.71CPOE+0.31
- 43.8%Third-down rate36.5%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 2.45Points / drive1.93
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/31 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 5 | 7 | 98 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 6 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Juwann Winfree | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 28/40 | 215 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 10 | 13 | 136 | 2 |
| Marquise Brown | 10 | 14 | 43 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
37.5%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.38