2021 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

31·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -9.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-4.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapRavens
  • +0.136EPA / play+0.009
  • 48.9%Success rate46.3%
  • +0.222EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.003EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +4.71CPOE+0.31
  • 43.8%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.93
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.3 points. BAL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17BAL @ GB41–24BAL
2017 · W11BAL @ GB23–0BAL
2013 · W6GB @ BAL19–17GB
2009 · W13BAL @ GB14–27GB
2005 · W15GB @ BAL3–48BAL
2001 · W5BAL @ GB23–31GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–BAL
BALQ1 15:001475Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ1 7:3836Punt0–0
BALQ1 6:05745Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 2:33980Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 12:501158Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 7:111177Touchdown14–14
BALQ2 1:0936Punt14–14
GBQ2 0:38415Punt14–14
BALQ2 0:0700End of half14–14
GBQ3 15:001468Touchdown21–14
BALQ3 7:40860Field goal21–17
GBQ3 3:201288Touchdown28–17
BALQ4 12:544-1Turnover on downs28–17
GBQ4 11:56418Field goal31–17
BALQ4 9:261463Touchdown31–24
GBQ4 4:473-4Punt31–24
BALQ4 2:24749Touchdown31–30
GBQ4 0:4200End of half31–30

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3126830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13584.50
AJ Dillon7223.11
Aaron Rodgers4112.80
Allen Lazard155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling57981
Davante Adams67441
Marcedes Lewis33400
Allen Lazard24230
Tyler Davis11220
Josiah Deguara35160
AJ Dillon11130
Aaron Jones22121
Juwann Winfree0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley28/4021520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Huntley13735.62
Latavius Murray7486.90
Devonta Freeman6223.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews10131362
Marquise Brown1014430
Devin Duvernay33130
James Proche1180
Rashod Bateman1250
Tylan Wallace1250
Latavius Murray1330
Devonta Freeman1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

37.5%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.38