2009 · Week 13

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

14·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 21°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -4

Total

43

Model margin

+4.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPackers
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.124
  • 44.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.078EPA / dropback+0.213
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.018
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +2.29CPOE+3.74
  • 41.4%Third-down rate47.0%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.22
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17BAL @ GB41–24BAL
2021 · W15GB @ BAL31–30GB
2017 · W11BAL @ GB23–0BAL
2013 · W6GB @ BAL19–17GB
2005 · W15GB @ BAL3–48BAL
2001 · W5BAL @ GB23–31GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–GB
GBQ1 15:001147Field goal0–3
BALQ1 8:39853Turnover0–3
GBQ1 4:183-2Turnover0–3
BALQ1 3:3945Turnover0–3
GBQ1 1:52413Punt0–3
BALQ1 0:033-3Punt0–3
GBQ2 14:04619Punt0–3
BALQ2 11:476-1Punt0–3
GBQ2 9:48963Touchdown0–10
BALQ2 4:3536Punt0–10
GBQ2 2:44955Touchdown0–17
BALQ2 0:32512End of half0–17
BALQ3 15:0068Punt0–17
GBQ3 12:11929Turnover0–17
BALQ3 8:071171Touchdown7–17
GBQ3 3:2810Turnover7–17
BALQ3 3:1431Touchdown14–17
GBQ3 2:58935Missed field goal14–17
BALQ4 14:504-7Punt14–17
GBQ4 12:50449Touchdown14–24
BALQ4 10:3141Turnover14–24
GBQ4 8:4637Punt14–24
BALQ4 7:0010Turnover14–24
GBQ4 6:48736Field goal14–27
BALQ4 1:56839Turnover on downs14–27
GBQ4 0:2800End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco15/3613713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice14543.90
Joe Flacco3165.30
Willis McGahee4-4-1.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap510520
Kelley Washington44391
Ray Rice36170
Mark Clayton17160
Derrick Mason26130
Willis McGahee0100
Demetrius Williams0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/4026332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Grant18412.30
Aaron Rodgers4307.50
Ahman Green5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley78792
Greg Jennings610770
James Jones47440
Donald Driver36311
Brandon Jackson23140
Korey Hall11130
Jordy Nelson1150
Donald Lee1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.65