Closing spread
GB -4
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.124
- 44.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.078EPA / dropback+0.213
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.018
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +2.29CPOE+3.74
- 41.4%Third-down rate47.0%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.99Points / drive2.22
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.3 points. GB are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/36 | 137 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 5 | 10 | 52 | 0 |
| Kelley Washington | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demetrius Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/40 | 263 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 18 | 41 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 7 | 8 | 79 | 2 |
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| James Jones | 4 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Korey Hall | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.65