2001 · Week 5
Final / OT
Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
33
Model margin
+1.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.011
- 39.6%Success rate39.7%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.193
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 35.3%Third-down rate42.1%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.43Points / drive1.49
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.045
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. TEN are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 24/50 | 287 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 8 | 17 | 140 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 6 | 10 | 72 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 7 | 12 | 65 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Reidel Anthony | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 15/23 | 230 | 1 | 1 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 3/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 29 | 85 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Steve McNair | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Mike Green | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin McCareins | 2 | 2 | 70 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Mike Green | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88