2003 · Week 17
Final
The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
TEN -4
Total
39
Model margin
-0.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.040
- 41.6%Success rate42.3%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.215
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.172
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate41.2%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.38Points / drive1.93
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
- -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. TEN are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 10:53 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q1 6:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TB | Q1 4:15 | 9 | 55 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 14:44 | 7 | 40 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 11:37 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:44 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 8:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 7:15 | 3 | 38 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 6:03 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 4:23 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| TB | Q2 1:50 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–13 |
| TEN | Q2 1:16 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–16 |
| TEN | Q3 13:30 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| TB | Q3 9:27 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 6–19 |
| TEN | Q3 5:22 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 6–26 |
| TB | Q3 2:18 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 13–26 |
| TEN | Q4 13:21 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–26 |
| TB | Q4 11:39 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 13–26 |
| TEN | Q4 8:40 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 13–26 |
| TB | Q4 4:11 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–26 |
| TEN | Q4 4:01 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 13–33 |
| TB | Q4 2:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–33 |
| TEN | Q4 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–33 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 11/15 | 106 | 1 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 13/23 | 96 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 18/27 | 232 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 26 | 87 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.90
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.13