2003 · Week 17

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Brad Johnson

13·33

Titans

Tennessee

QB Neil O'Donnell

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

TEN -4

Total

39

Model margin

-0.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapTitans
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.040
  • 41.6%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.215
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.172
  • 7.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.38Points / drive1.93
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
  • -0.116EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. TEN are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10TEN @ TB6–20TB
2019 · W8TB @ TEN23–27TEN
2015 · W1TEN @ TB42–14TEN
2011 · W12TB @ TEN17–23TEN
2007 · W6TEN @ TB10–13TB
2001 · W5TB @ TEN28–31TEN

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King11/1510611
Brad Johnson13/239603

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones13685.20
Michael Pittman4194.80
Shaun King221.00

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Neil O'Donnell18/2723221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George26873.30
Chris Brown7263.70
Neil O'Donnell1-1-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.90
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.13