2015 · Week 1
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.008
- 41.1%Success rate44.4%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.141
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.30CPOE-0.02
- 32.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.32Points / drive1.77
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. TB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/15 | 209 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 12 | 74 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 4 | 101 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 3 | 43 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/33 | 210 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 5 | 7 | 110 | 2 |
| Vincent Jackson | 4 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52