2015 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

42·14

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

TB -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.103EPA / play+0.008
  • 41.1%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.141
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.30CPOE-0.02
  • 32.1%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.77
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. TB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10TEN @ TB6–20TB
2019 · W8TB @ TEN23–27TEN
2011 · W12TB @ TEN17–23TEN
2007 · W6TEN @ TB10–13TB
2003 · W17TB @ TEN13–33TEN
2001 · W5TB @ TEN28–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–TB
TENQ1 15:00574Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 13:1037Opp touchdown14–0
TBQ1 11:4831Punt14–0
TENQ1 10:16663Touchdown21–0
TBQ1 6:491275Touchdown21–7
TENQ2 14:545-5Punt21–7
TBQ2 11:4349Turnover on downs21–7
TENQ2 9:49961Touchdown28–7
TBQ2 3:47426Turnover28–7
TENQ2 2:37632Touchdown35–7
TBQ2 0:48318End of half35–7
TBQ3 15:005-7Punt35–7
TENQ3 12:23841Touchdown42–7
TBQ3 8:0244Punt42–7
TENQ3 5:30630Punt42–7
TBQ3 0:5031Punt42–7
TENQ4 14:49412Turnover42–7
TBQ4 12:36972Touchdown42–14
TENQ4 9:1836Punt42–14
TBQ4 7:031962Turnover on downs42–14
TENQ4 2:1200Punt42–14
TBQ4 0:2915End of half42–14

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/1520940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey12746.21
Terrance West13413.20
Dexter McCluster284.00
Marcus Mariota263.00
Zach Mettenberger3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright441011
Delanie Walker33431
Harry Douglas22241
Anthony Fasano11180
Bishop Sankey23121
Justin Hunter12110

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston16/3321022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin11524.70
Jameis Winston6183.00
Charles Sims5122.40
Bobby Rainey3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Seferian-Jenkins571102
Vincent Jackson411510
Charles Sims25230
Adam Humphries24140
Russell Shepard1160
Bobby Rainey1140
Doug Martin1120
Louis Murphy0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.52