2007 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
37
Model margin
+4.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.004
- 42.4%Success rate41.9%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.31CPOE+2.62
- 41.4%Third-down rate39.3%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.43Points / drive1.64
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. TB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 10/20 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 11/14 | 120 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 25 | 64 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Chris Brown | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 20/31 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.53