2011 · Week 12

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

17·23

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapTitans
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.046
  • 43.0%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.170
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -1.20CPOE-1.91
  • 37.0%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.51
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. TEN are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10TEN @ TB6–20TB
2019 · W8TB @ TEN23–27TEN
2015 · W1TEN @ TB42–14TEN
2007 · W6TEN @ TB10–13TB
2003 · W17TB @ TEN13–33TEN
2001 · W5TB @ TEN28–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–TEN
TBQ1 15:0028Turnover0–0
TENQ1 14:4730Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:461067Field goal3–6
TENQ1 8:0200Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 7:47519Punt3–7
TENQ1 4:48629Turnover3–7
TBQ1 2:1336Punt3–7
TENQ1 1:211257Missed field goal3–7
TBQ2 9:53616Turnover3–7
TENQ2 7:12836Field goal3–10
TBQ2 3:523-2Punt3–10
TENQ2 2:18512Turnover3–10
TBQ2 0:59629Touchdown10–10
TENQ2 0:1300End of half10–10
TENQ3 15:00338Turnover10–10
TBQ3 13:35319Turnover10–10
TENQ3 12:3720Opp touchdown17–10
TENQ3 12:04741Punt17–10
TBQ3 6:46322Turnover17–10
TENQ3 4:493-8Punt17–10
TBQ3 3:18422Punt17–10
TENQ3 0:55837Field goal17–13
TBQ4 11:57847Punt17–13
TENQ4 7:141080Touchdown17–20
TBQ4 3:0120Turnover17–20
TENQ4 2:19532Field goal17–23
TBQ4 1:44655Turnover on downs17–23
TENQ4 0:3900End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman18/3319911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount201035.20
Josh Freeman3103.30
Josh Johnson166.00
Kregg Lumpkin133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams611841
LeGarrette Blount33560
Kellen Winslow57520
Kregg Lumpkin33100
Preston Parker0300
Arrelious Benn15-30

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck19/3416012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson231908.30
Javon Ringer9121.30
Matt Hasselbeck2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lavelle Hawkins57510
Jared Cook37380
Damian Williams34331
Nate Washington16120
Javon Ringer4560
Chris Johnson1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.54