2011 · Week 12
Final
LP Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.046
- 43.0%Success rate39.2%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.170
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.20CPOE-1.91
- 37.0%Third-down rate35.9%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.39Points / drive1.51
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. TEN are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 18/33 | 199 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 11 | 84 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/34 | 160 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 23 | 190 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 9 | 12 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavelle Hawkins | 5 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.54