2023 · Week 10

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

6·20

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

TB -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.008
  • 40.9%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.166
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.48CPOE+0.25
  • 34.1%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 49.4%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.86
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. TB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2019 · W8TB @ TEN23–27TEN
2015 · W1TEN @ TB42–14TEN
2011 · W12TB @ TEN17–23TEN
2007 · W6TEN @ TB10–13TB
2003 · W17TB @ TEN13–33TEN
2001 · W5TB @ TEN28–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–TB
TENQ1 15:001250Field goal3–0
TBQ1 8:34633Turnover3–0
TENQ1 5:0269Punt3–0
TBQ1 0:4332Punt3–0
TENQ2 14:4938Missed field goal3–0
TBQ2 12:3934Punt3–0
TENQ2 11:12316Punt3–0
TBQ2 8:48685Touchdown3–7
TENQ2 5:3934Punt3–7
TBQ2 4:38828Punt3–7
TENQ2 0:3612End of half3–7
TBQ3 15:001068Field goal3–10
TENQ3 10:42715Punt3–10
TBQ3 7:31880Touchdown3–17
TENQ3 2:461246Field goal6–17
TBQ4 12:541343Field goal6–20
TENQ4 7:01423Turnover6–20
TBQ4 6:144-3Punt6–20
TENQ4 4:56522Turnover on downs6–20
TBQ4 3:3231Punt6–20
TENQ4 1:52714Turnover on downs6–20
TBQ4 0:4200End of half6–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis19/3919901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry11242.20
Tyjae Spears5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Philips35610
Tyjae Spears45420
DeAndre Hopkins39270
Chig Okonkwo36270
Chris Moore24210
Josh Whyle25160
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1490
Derrick Henry11-40

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield18/2927821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White20512.50
Baker Mayfield3124.00
Chase Edmonds492.30
Deven Thompkins166.00
Kyle Trask1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans6101431
Chris Godwin Jr.46540
Rachaad White23471
Trey Palmer24210
Cade Otton23100
Deven Thompkins1250
Chase Edmonds11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.58