2023 · Week 10
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.008
- 40.9%Success rate40.5%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.166
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.48CPOE+0.25
- 34.1%Third-down rate42.2%
- 49.4%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.57Points / drive1.86
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. TB are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 19/39 | 199 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Philips | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/29 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Trask | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 10 | 143 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.58