2019 · Week 8
Final
Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
TEN -2
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.063
- 43.6%Success rate45.7%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.0%Explosive rate11.6%
- +0.42CPOE+3.45
- 42.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.86Points / drive1.99
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. TEN are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 21/43 | 301 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 11 | 12 | 198 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/33 | 193 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.32