2019 · Week 8

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

23·27

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TEN -2

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapTitans
  • +0.000EPA / play+0.063
  • 43.6%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.0%Explosive rate11.6%
  • +0.42CPOE+3.45
  • 42.2%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 71.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.99
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. TEN are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10TEN @ TB6–20TB
2015 · W1TEN @ TB42–14TEN
2011 · W12TB @ TEN17–23TEN
2007 · W6TEN @ TB10–13TB
2003 · W17TB @ TEN13–33TEN
2001 · W5TB @ TEN28–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–TEN
TBQ1 15:00828Field goal3–0
TENQ1 11:283-5Punt3–0
TBQ1 9:5723Turnover3–0
TENQ1 8:5815Touchdown3–7
TBQ1 8:55824Punt3–7
TENQ1 4:30642Punt3–7
TBQ1 1:3722Turnover3–7
TENQ1 0:4036Touchdown3–14
TBQ1 0:241655Field goal6–14
TENQ2 7:5131Punt6–14
TBQ2 6:02428Field goal9–14
TENQ2 3:47422Field goal9–17
TBQ2 1:09875Touchdown15–17
TENQ2 0:1500End of half15–17
TENQ3 15:00436Turnover15–17
TBQ3 13:01456Touchdown23–17
TENQ3 11:113-1Punt23–17
TBQ3 9:37837Punt23–17
TENQ3 5:201131Field goal23–20
TBQ3 0:37419Punt23–20
TENQ4 13:4913100Touchdown23–27
TBQ4 6:55311Turnover23–27
TENQ4 6:0348Turnover on downs23–27
TBQ4 3:41939Turnover on downs23–27
TENQ4 1:5333Punt23–27
TBQ4 0:42212Turnover23–27
TENQ4 0:1800End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston21/4330122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jameis Winston8536.60
Ronald Jones11353.20
Peyton Barber10202.00
Dare Ogunbowale1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans11121982
Chris Godwin Jr.48430
Cameron Brate36320
Ronald Jones13170
Peyton Barber1380
Dare Ogunbowale1330
Breshad Perriman0400
Tanner Hudson0100
Scott Miller0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill21/3319330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry16754.70
Ryan Tannehill4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith67781
Anthony Firkser35430
Adam Humphries36240
Tajae Sharpe33181
A.J. Brown23111
Corey Davis2690
Derrick Henry1180
Dion Lewis1120
MyCole Pruitt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.32