Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
36
Model margin
+1.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.090
- 39.4%Success rate39.0%
- -0.033EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.9%
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 1.28Points / drive0.98
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 23/30 | 232 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 22 | 188 | 8.5 | 1 |
| James Allen | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Terrell | 7 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 6 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Marcus Robinson | 5 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| John Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/46 | 244 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 30 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Curtis Keaton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 8 | 15 | 84 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 2 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Farmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.05