Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.087
- 44.6%Success rate41.4%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.105
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.4%
- +5.14CPOE-2.87
- 40.1%Third-down rate34.7%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.38Points / drive1.62
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CHI are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 19/30 | 207 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 10 | 60 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 2 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Chris Evans | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 6/13 | 60 | 0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 9/11 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 20 | 61 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 2 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.78
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45