Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play-0.088
- 38.5%Success rate39.2%
- -0.099EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.150
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
- -3.10CPOE-1.89
- 34.8%Third-down rate34.7%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.22Points / drive1.49
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 25/32 | 271 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 23 | 147 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Tarik Cohen | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 10 | 11 | 107 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Daniel Brown | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 14/29 | 141 | 1 | 1 |
| AJ McCarron | 4/8 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 12 | 64 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.94