2017 · Week 14

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

33·7

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 31°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CIN -6

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBengals
  • -0.112EPA / play-0.088
  • 38.5%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.099EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.150
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -3.10CPOE-1.89
  • 34.8%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.49
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9CHI @ CIN47–42CHI
2021 · W2CIN @ CHI17–20CHI
2013 · W1CIN @ CHI21–24CHI
2009 · W7CHI @ CIN10–45CIN
2005 · W3CIN @ CHI24–7CIN
2001 · W6CHI @ CIN24–0CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CIN
CINQ1 15:00616Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:06451Touchdown6–0
CINQ1 11:0039Punt6–0
CHIQ1 9:47616Punt6–0
CINQ1 6:14772Touchdown6–7
CHIQ1 2:151088Field goal9–7
CINQ2 12:38617Punt9–7
CHIQ2 9:5715101Field goal12–7
CINQ2 1:4632Punt12–7
CHIQ2 0:3250End of half12–7
CHIQ3 15:00419Punt12–7
CINQ3 11:4835Punt12–7
CHIQ3 10:09976Touchdown19–7
CINQ3 4:5433Turnover19–7
CHIQ3 3:15842Touchdown26–7
CINQ4 14:52438Turnover26–7
CHIQ4 13:31780Touchdown33–7
CINQ4 9:181034Turnover on downs33–7
CHIQ4 6:1935Punt33–7
CINQ4 4:30836Turnover on downs33–7
CHIQ4 2:4144Turnover on downs33–7
CINQ4 0:2312End of half33–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky25/3227110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard231476.42
Tarik Cohen12806.70
Mitchell Trubisky252.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright10111070
Josh Bellamy24520
Adam Shaheen45441
Dion Sims23320
Benny Cunningham22140
Daniel Brown2290
Jordan Howard1280
Tarik Cohen2250

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton14/2914111
AJ McCarron4/84700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard11625.60
Brian Hill284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Giovani Bernard68680
A.J. Green512640
Brandon LaFell36241
Tyler Boyd14150
Alex Erickson1190
Ryan Hewitt1160
Brian Hill1120
C.J. Uzomah0100
Tyler Kroft0100
Josh Malone0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.94