2013 · Week 1

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

21·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-0.3est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Bears

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBears
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.077
  • 43.4%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.109EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.072
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +1.24CPOE+4.85
  • 41.9%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 73.3%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.76Points / drive1.95
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CHI are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9CHI @ CIN47–42CHI
2021 · W2CIN @ CHI17–20CHI
2017 · W14CHI @ CIN33–7CHI
2009 · W7CHI @ CIN10–45CIN
2005 · W3CIN @ CHI24–7CIN
2001 · W6CHI @ CIN24–0CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CINQ1 13:4523Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 13:02841Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 9:5235Punt0–7
CHIQ1 8:2436Punt0–7
CINQ1 6:51997Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 2:34831Punt7–7
CINQ2 12:37847Turnover7–7
CHIQ2 8:1134Punt7–7
CINQ2 7:02891Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 2:5333Punt14–7
CINQ2 1:4333Punt14–7
CHIQ2 0:4224Field goal14–10
CINQ2 0:1100End of half14–10
CINQ3 15:001456Touchdown21–10
CHIQ3 7:52980Touchdown21–17
CINQ3 3:22418Punt21–17
CHIQ3 0:54429Turnover21–17
CINQ4 13:58321Turnover21–17
CHIQ4 12:39991Touchdown21–24
CINQ4 7:5830Punt21–24
CHIQ4 6:38928End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton26/3328222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis14251.81
Giovani Bernard4225.50
Marvin Jones11414.00
Andy Dalton221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green9131622
Tyler Eifert55470
Jermaine Gresham55350
Mohamed Sanu45190
Giovani Bernard1280
Marvin Jones1270
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1140

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler21/3324221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte19502.61
Jay Cutler3165.30
Michael Bush6152.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall8101041
Martellus Bennett36491
Alshon Jeffery58420
Matt Forte46410
Earl Bennett1160
Michael Bush0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.5%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

7.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.30