Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play+0.077
- 43.4%Success rate45.2%
- +0.109EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.072
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- +1.24CPOE+4.85
- 41.9%Third-down rate42.7%
- 73.3%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.76Points / drive1.95
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CHI are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/33 | 282 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 14 | 25 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 9 | 13 | 162 | 2 |
| Tyler Eifert | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 21/33 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 19 | 50 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 10 | 104 | 1 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.30