2009 · Week 7

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

10·45

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBengals
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.019
  • 39.6%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback+0.038
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.30CPOE-0.82
  • 37.3%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.65
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9CHI @ CIN47–42CHI
2021 · W2CIN @ CHI17–20CHI
2017 · W14CHI @ CIN33–7CHI
2013 · W1CIN @ CHI21–24CHI
2005 · W3CIN @ CHI24–7CIN
2001 · W6CHI @ CIN24–0CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CIN
CINQ1 15:00877Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:00826Punt0–7
CINQ1 5:16880Touchdown0–14
CHIQ1 1:073-2Punt0–14
CINQ2 14:18763Touchdown0–21
CHIQ2 11:14530Turnover0–21
CINQ2 9:411266Touchdown0–28
CHIQ2 2:49212Turnover0–28
CINQ2 2:0636Field goal0–31
CHIQ2 1:10775Field goal3–31
CHIQ3 15:001149Turnover3–31
CINQ3 9:181057Touchdown3–38
CHIQ3 4:48421Turnover3–38
CINQ3 3:05848Touchdown3–45
CHIQ4 14:57860Touchdown10–45
CINQ4 11:481244Turnover on downs10–45
CHIQ4 3:3937Punt10–45
CINQ4 2:0537Punt10–45
CHIQ4 0:3111End of half10–45

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler26/3725113
Caleb Hanie1/2300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte6244.00
Garrett Wolfe372.30
Jay Cutler341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Hester891011
Earl Bennett46480
Johnny Knox46420
Matt Forte46250
Greg Olsen45240
Desmond Clark35140
Rashied Davis0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/2423350

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson371895.11
Bernard Scott6172.80
J.T. O'Sullivan294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson10111182
Laveranues Coles24371
Chris Henry23261
Andre Caldwell22190
Bernard Scott11140
J.P. Foschi1131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.52