Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.019
- 39.6%Success rate42.9%
- -0.064EPA / dropback+0.038
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.30CPOE-0.82
- 37.3%Third-down rate41.6%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate54.4%
- 1.57Points / drive1.65
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/37 | 251 | 1 | 3 |
| Caleb Hanie | 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 8 | 9 | 101 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/24 | 233 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 37 | 189 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Bernard Scott | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 10 | 11 | 118 | 2 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| Chris Henry | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Andre Caldwell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| J.P. Foschi | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.52