Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.012
- 45.7%Success rate46.4%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.012
- +0.007EPA / rush+0.012
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.48CPOE+1.28
- 42.0%Third-down rate44.3%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 2.32Points / drive1.93
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 20/34 | 280 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 1/1 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | 26 | 176 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Brittain Brown | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 6 | 7 | 118 | 2 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brittain Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 31/47 | 470 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tahj Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 7 | 9 | 121 | 2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 8 | 111 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 8 | 14 | 75 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 5 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53