2025 · Week 9

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

47·42

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Flacco

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapBengals
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.012
  • 45.7%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback+0.012
  • +0.007EPA / rush+0.012
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.48CPOE+1.28
  • 42.0%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.93
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CIN are 2-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W2CIN @ CHI17–20CHI
2017 · W14CHI @ CIN33–7CHI
2013 · W1CIN @ CHI21–24CHI
2009 · W7CHI @ CIN10–45CIN
2005 · W3CIN @ CHI24–7CIN
2001 · W6CHI @ CIN24–0CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CIN
CINQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 14:491368Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 8:44632Field goal7–10
CHIQ1 5:411274Touchdown14–10
CINQ2 14:5448Punt14–10
CHIQ2 12:1238Punt14–10
CINQ2 10:071085Field goal14–13
CHIQ2 5:471169Field goal17–13
CINQ2 1:29263Touchdown17–20
CHIQ2 1:12951Missed field goal17–20
CINQ2 0:0300End of half17–20
CHIQ3 15:001277Touchdown24–20
CINQ3 8:11669Touchdown24–27
CHIQ3 5:19674Touchdown31–27
CINQ3 1:57411Turnover31–27
CHIQ4 14:54420Field goal34–27
CINQ4 12:031248Missed field goal34–27
CHIQ4 5:53256Touchdown41–27
CINQ4 4:53955Turnover41–27
CHIQ4 2:4237Punt41–27
CINQ4 2:15455Touchdown41–35
CHIQ4 1:4300Touchdown41–35
CINQ4 1:42657Touchdown41–42
CHIQ4 0:54472Touchdown47–42
CINQ4 0:17313Turnover47–42

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams20/3428030
Tyson Bagent1/12000
DJ Moore1/1210
Cole Kmet0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyle Monangai261766.80
Caleb Williams55310.60
Brittain Brown5377.41
DJ Moore11717.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Colston Loveland671182
DJ Moore46720
Olamide Zaccheaus68581
Caleb Williams22221
Kyle Monangai35220
Cole Kmet12100
Brittain Brown0100
Rome Odunze0300

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco31/4747042

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown11373.40
Samaje Perine155.00
Andrei Iosivas144.00
Tahj Brooks111.00
Joe Flacco1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins791212
Ja'Marr Chase681110
Chase Brown814750
Andrei Iosivas57661
Tanner Hudson22420
Noah Fant23281
Mitchell Tinsley12270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.53