2005 · Week 3

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

24·7

Bears

Chicago

QB Kyle Orton

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

39

Model margin

+2.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBears
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.138
  • 48.2%Success rate37.0%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.147
  • +0.023EPA / rush-0.129
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 43.8%Third-down rate28.3%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive1.08
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.167

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 5–2 since 1999

CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CHI are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9CHI @ CIN47–42CHI
2021 · W2CIN @ CHI17–20CHI
2017 · W14CHI @ CIN33–7CHI
2013 · W1CIN @ CHI21–24CHI
2009 · W7CHI @ CIN10–45CIN
2001 · W6CHI @ CIN24–0CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CHI
CINQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CHIQ1 14:0510Turnover6–0
CINQ1 13:51118Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 13:4638Punt7–0
CINQ1 11:4533Punt7–0
CHIQ1 9:52528Turnover7–0
CINQ1 7:586-4Field goal10–0
CHIQ1 5:31513Punt10–0
CINQ1 2:56615Punt10–0
CHIQ2 14:3535Turnover10–0
CINQ2 13:0332Punt10–0
CHIQ2 11:0939Punt10–0
CINQ2 9:54622Punt10–0
CHIQ2 5:5210Turnover10–0
CINQ2 5:42411Turnover10–0
CHIQ2 3:53547Missed field goal10–0
CINQ2 1:0700End of half10–0
CHIQ3 15:0037Punt10–0
CINQ3 13:3334Punt10–0
CHIQ3 12:05515Turnover10–0
CINQ3 10:01770Touchdown17–0
CHIQ3 7:0333Punt17–0
CINQ3 6:0237Punt17–0
CHIQ3 4:011553Touchdown17–7
CINQ4 13:30362Touchdown24–7
CHIQ4 11:56844Turnover24–7
CINQ4 8:5732Punt24–7
CHIQ4 7:19616Punt24–7
CINQ4 4:5534Punt24–7
CHIQ4 3:1647Turnover on downs24–7
CINQ4 2:17226End of half24–7

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer16/2316930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson25843.40
Chris Perry122.00
Chad Johnson1-1-1.00
Carson Palmer6-3-0.50

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton17/3914905

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones271063.91
Kyle Orton100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

6.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.48