Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.138
- 48.2%Success rate37.0%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.147
- +0.023EPA / rush-0.129
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 43.8%Third-down rate28.3%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 2.30Points / drive1.08
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed-0.167
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 5–2 since 1999
CHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. CHI are 4-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 16/23 | 169 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 25 | 84 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 6 | -3 | -0.5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 17/39 | 149 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 27 | 106 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
6.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.48